Energy Scenarios to 2050

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Studies and reports. Study regarding the adequacy and flexibility needs of the Belgian power system PDF Activity Report PDF 8. Sustainability Report PDF 2. And you can get used and it doesn't cost any investment to, of course, different patterns? But I would like to say before I open it for questions is that a lot of the problems for politicians in this energy world is that a lot of politicians are appointed for four years or five years while the things I talk about have a much longer lead time before they start to work. And that is not only a problem in the U.

And that will always be very difficult now because politicians get nervous but they don't see the result of the actions. And by the examples I have given is you can't leave it to free capitalism. I hope that it is quite clear from our presentation that it will be absolutely essential that governments and companies can work together because if you don't do that and then you don't make any progress. And you should be concerned about your energy and you have to be concerned about the climate change.

And Jeremy, thanks very much for these introductory remarks which in many ways were quite startling especially sitting in this room and looking at people around us who have such a -- inaudible -- and in terms of getting governments out of markets and letting markets do what they do. And that kind of world and corporate capitalism is a world of scramble and here you are arguing for a world of blueprints.

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How exactly can we learn about good blueprints and bad blueprints? And do we end up with a scramble for blueprints? You, yourself in your remarks talked about some of the pitfalls of biofuels, which are brought to us whether in Europe or the U. What lessons have you learned in the process of this to distinguish among good blueprints and bad blueprints? And what lessons are there in it? It is that today we are -- at Shell we are the largest distributor of first-generation biofuels. The reason that we don't make any adverts about it is -- or only very small prints -- is because -- inaudible -- because if you make it a lot bigger, then you've got huge competition with food; you got competition with arable land.

If people start to continue to survive is to increase fuel efficiency as we described, you still run out of land. So that's not the solution.

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But then you may think, oh, this is self-serving, Shell against biofuels. Absolutely not true. We are a real advocate and we are -- we do the lot of things what we call second-generation biofuels. That is the part that does not compete with food. And of course, to harvest them to make out of that part of the plants transport fuels. The interesting thing is -- and we have just published that -- is that while the successful technologies will be out of this non-food part of plants to make transport fuels and to make it very big is not that clear.

So how do we move as a company? To give an example, we are basically now involved in six joint ventures or collaboration agreements which has all different processes to convert the plants -- the non-food plants, so to say -- in transport fuels.

The future of energy?

Of which one -- it's very interesting in my view -- is where we start with algae and seawater, because biofuels and sweet water and then you've solved the one problem that maybe you create the next problem is that the world may run out of sweet water. So here you see the very early leads, how we try to research that and develop that for the long-term future.

I think that is simply a question that in the blueprints you have really to think about energy -- every energy solution -- what are the unintended consequences?

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And so far what we have seen, there are no silver bullets, and that in itself is a reason that you have to cooperate, I said, between governments and companies. But in fact there is a third angle to that; that is the scientific world. Before I ask my second question, I just thought that I would note that I don't know whether it's still true but I was struck by your comments at the very beginning on chocolate because I know that not many years ago Shell was the largest vendor of Mars chocolate bars in the world.

And there seems to be a coincidence of interest between the two that somebody might want to pick up on. My next question really is about the scramble world. And the scramble world as you've described it is one that has been brought to us by resource nationalism and a tight market. In many places in which your own company has had substantial investments at risk including Russia and Nigeria.

What can you as a company or other companies do in a blueprints world to get the owners of resources to move away from the scrambled Darwinian world into a win-win kind of world. First of all, I've not experienced that; that I have really to say that, so far. Secondly is that if you think it's true that in a blueprints world there will be huge capital, for instance, in the Middle East or other countries who keep all those resources, and in a blueprints world, the international mobility of capital and investments or the reputation of that country so to get other?

So then you have basically to widen the debate outside the direct energy portfolio and to see that in a total global order, which we call here the blueprints world, they even as resource holders will be better off. Any question you want to ask, you can ask. Just when I call on you, please state your name, your affiliation if you want, and ask one simple question and sit down.

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Shell has a hydrogen division. What are the implications of the two scenarios for Shell Hydrogen? How will you produce your hydrogen? You've seen that one of the technologies that comes forward in the blueprints outlook is vehicle electrification. Clearly, hydrogen fuel cells is one way of bringing vehicle electrification. The different technologies will compete with each other.

That's why we haven't specified specifically which technology will go forward. Clearly, if you have the fuel cell vehicles, you have solved the problem of the distributed emissions. It is then a question of whether you're using fossil fuels or not to create the hydrogen. I believe that's the most economic way to create the hydrogen and from point sources there are then equipped with carbon capture and storage. So there is a position for hydrogen in this outlook, but what will be driving whether it's hydrogen or whether it's batteries will be vehicle technology developments, not the energy system in itself.

I'd like to add this. That if hydrogen -- a lot of people look at the technologies, but you have to tackle the perceived safety risk. And if your answer is yes, then my second question is are you prepared to buy a house next to a hydrogen station? The next question is here. Adam Wolfensohn sp , Wolfensohn sp and Company.

Is the blueprint scenario compatible with the parts per million atmospheric concentration of CO2 as recommended by scientists? And if so, why is oil actually more prominent in the blueprint scenario than in the scrambled scenario? It shows just on this back page that there's actually more oil as a percentage of total demand in the blueprint scenario than in the scrambled scenario.

The blueprints outlook is not ideal in terms of what climate scientists would look for. We're working with climatologists in MIT and in other places because as well as the energy-related emissions, there are other emissions in the world from land use and the like that need to be looked at together. If we were to go back to the IPCC work and the World Business Council sustainability work, then the blueprints type of profile looks somewhere between the and the I suspect the climate science is moving now towards a direction where it's more towards the end of that.

So I wouldn't like to say where that is. Clearly, though, the scrambled-type outlook is on a much higher trajectory and a much more concerning trajectory. On the oil side, it really is an issue of the interplay of forces between energy users and energy exporters. The blueprints outlook as the patchwork aligns creates much more anticipatory behaviors, so, much more economically optimum from the point of view of the energy importer, the user of energy.

And in that dynamic, then, it also creates incentives for producing more of the oil earlier. And that's the reason why that comes forward somewhat in the blueprints scenario. If you've looked at the figures, they're not hugely different.

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In all these beautiful graphs, I didn't see one about carbon price or carbon tax or shadow price, and yet there must be such a value versus time in order to drive these scenarios. Where can I find it? I think it is for more than eight or nine years. And the interesting debate is when we start doing that, then the people who proposed it, they had a relative low price. And then we said as directors of the company, no, no, we like to have a high price because all those projects we will for decades, and the chance that our CO2 price is too high or the CO2 penalty is too high must be quite unlikely.

I don't know know what's disclosed? I'm not so sure whether we have disclosed that, but I'll leave that Jeremy. And so it's very important, as Jeroen said, that there are the demonstration efforts in things like the carbon capture and storage, which the actual costs overall of carbon capture and storage will be discovered.

And that will be one of the factors, for instance, in what will set the ultimate carbon dioxide price. And so perhaps in today's world in those demonstration phases, you may be talking in figures which are well above those that are in the current market. But it's just then how quickly those will come down according to the development of the technology and the understanding of the carbon capture and storage. Scott Borderson ph , CFR.

In a future world in which climate change melts the Arctic sea ice, likely within a decade, how does Shell see the estimated 25 percent of the world's unproven reserves there, particularly in light of recent Shell bids on leases north of Alaska offshore? In itself, we think that the world is so short for energy that there's -- inaudible -- at these sites that you can drill -- inaudible -- Sea.

That will be a decision by governments. And the Russian part will be Russian government.